By: Ben McCormick
August 6, 2022
The emergence of the one and done unalterably changed modern basketball. The times of the most talented players building Superman like collegiate careers is over. The most talented players come into college basketball in November of their Freshman year, and a year later they are rookies in the NBA. Blue blood programs like Duke and Kentucky have used their brand and reputation to bolster their recruiting in order to land large amounts of these prospects each year. They send multiple young players to the league each year, but constantly have a young roster and experience high turnaround. This upcoming Duke team has eleven new scholarship players, and just two returning scholarship players (only one of which played consistent minutes). For any other program, this is a recipe for disaster. But at Duke, they have the one and done fall back net—a class of four new five star recruits waiting for their turn to put the world on notice.
It is exceptionally difficult when evaluating these players' careers in college. On one hand, they are phenomenally talented. Some of them are perhaps the very best players in program history in terms of skill. Yet, they only played one season, and that season more often than not does not end in National Championship. For instance, Zion Williamson might be Duke’s most dominant and endearing player in the school’s history. And yet he has no championships or career statistical records. He is not even in the 1,000 point club. No one and done has ever reached the 1,000 point club in just one season. Although RJ Barrett came the closest with 860 points.
Duke produced twelve NBA draft picks from 2019-2022. Zero of those twelve reached 1,000 career points at Duke. Zero of those twelve graduated from Duke. Now compare that to the twelve NBA draft picks produced from 1999-2002, twenty years ago (including Chris Duhon and Dahntay Jones who were drafted in 2004 & 2003). Eight of those twelve reached the 1,000 point club at Duke (and Nate James who went undrafted did as well). Of those twelve, seven graduated from Duke before heading pro.
My purpose for writing this is not to harp on one and dones and talk about the glorious days of the four year players. The purpose is to point out how the record book, at least the career records, aren’t changing anytime soon. Excluding Dahntay Jones, who reached 1,000 career points, but only if you combine his time at Duke and Rutgers—13 Blue Devils who played all or most of their career during the time frame 2000-2009 reached the 1,000 point club. Three of which reached 2,000 points. Compare that to the last ten seasons, 2013-2022, in which only seven players reached 1,000 points and zero reached 2,000. No player has achieved 1,000 career points since Amile Jefferson did on February 28, 2017 during the 2016-2017 season (Grayson Allen and Luke Kennard reached the mark before Jefferson that season).
Grayson Allen scored 1,996 points on his career at Duke, which was heartbreakingly close to 2,000. Had his final shot fallen against Kansas in the Elite 8 in 2018, he assuredly would have reached the mark with just one additional basket. Since Allen fell short, the last player to reach 2,000 points was Kyle Singler in 2011—twelve seasons ago. Just one year prior to Singler, Jon Scheyer joined the 2,000 club in 2010. Four years before Scheyer, Redick reached the threshold, then two years before JJ, Jay Williams scored his 2,000th point. The largest gap in the Coach K era pre 2010s involved a ten year gap between Laettner and Williams.
The outlook for the dry spell for the 2,000 club to end looks grim. The 1,000 point club may earn a new member this season though, effectively ending the six year drought. Jeremy Roach scored 545 points through his first two years. If Duke plays 37 games (an ACCT Championship appearance and trip to the Sweet 16 would suffice), a scoring average of 12.3 PPG would put Jeremy just over 1,000. Now, it is difficult to confidently claim that a single player from a given class will score 1,000 points in their career.
The 1,000 club receives far fewer new members than it once did due to the prevalence of the one and done, but the 2,000 point club may not see a new member for quite some time under the current set of rules and norms.
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