Ben McCormick
February 26, 2022
If you follow me on Twitter (@duke_recruiting) you have most likely noticed a large number of polls this week asking which one and done was better at Duke. That is because I created a twenty-five player bracket that was initially designed to include every one and done player in Duke basketball history (including the three presumptive ones following this season: Banchero, Griffin, and Keels). It would seem I made a mistake in counting because once I made the bracket I realized the number should have been twenty-six. That's why Trevor Keels is excluded from the bracket. I figured if I was going to omit someone it should be a player that has not officially left yet, and Keels is the most likely to return for a sophomore season of the three freshman hopefuls (albeit I would not count on his return). I didn't create this bracket to reflect my own views (although I will still interject my own opinions in this article from time to time). Rather, I created it to see what Duke fans thought about these players that have come to shape the foundation of our team each year, and to see what kinds of qualities they favored most. To me, the results were certainly interesting and surprising in many ways.
When seeding the bracket, I had to decide which seven players would receive a first round bye. To do this I went with players that were consensus All-Americans during their season at Duke (or presumptive All-American in Paolo Banchero's case). I will admit that it is possible that Banchero may or may not prove he deserved that bye, but in the moment he seemed like a good pick for the last bye. The other six went to Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Marvin Bagley III, Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, and Vernon Carey Jr., who were all consensus first team All-Americans aside from Carey who was consensus second team (Williamson was also NPOY in 2019). I received quite a lot of backlash for not giving byes to Tyus Jones and Kyrie Irving (but particularly Jones). I will elaborate more on why this was later in the article.
Furthermore, I will admit I made some seeding mistakes (believe me I know). Namely, I seeded Luol Deng much lower than I had initially intended and if I had to do it over again I would have swapped he and Cam Reddish. Still, I thought this bracket would produce some great matchups that I was genuinely curious to see the result of.
The first round included a whole lot of easy picks. Since every one and done since Duke's first with Corey Maggette was included, some were not exactly expected to be contenders. For instance, Luol Deng easily won over former top ranked recruit Harry Giles (93%/7%). The next matchup was between national champion Justise Winslow who averaged 12.6 PPG in 2014-2015 and Gary Trent Jr. who averaged 14.5 PPG in 2017-2018. I have always thought Gary Trent Jr. was severely underrated during his time at Duke, and his draft stock reflected that. His recent performances in the NBA have proven me right, but still he lost this matchup to Winslow 90%/10%. This matchup revealed a trend that would characterize the debate surrounding this bracket for the coming days: the champions had a bigger impact on Duke and should be rewarded. Regardless of whether Trent scored more, Justise was a champion and Duke is in the business of hanging banners.
Additionally, I was surprised to see Duke's first ever one and done Corey Maggette beat Cam Reddish 58/42. Not because I didn't think Maggette was great, and not even necessarily because I didn't think he should win either. Rather, I figured Reddish would win due to recency bias. To be fair, it had been twenty-three years since Maggette played at Duke and just three since Reddish suited up (not to mention the fact that many voters were not even alive when Corey played in Durham). Still, Maggette prevailed and moved on to the second round.
I won't dwell too much on the less competitive or intriguing first round matchups, so here is a recap of some of the other matchups: Brandon Ingram over Trevon Duval (99/1), Tyus Jones over Cassius Stanley (99/1), Jayson Tatum over Jalen Johnson (99/1), Wendell Carter Jr. over Frank Jackson (97/3), and Austin Rivers over DJ Steward (97/3). However, the final first round matchup was one I was intrigued by: Kyrie Irving vs. AJ Griffin. Kyrie only played eleven games at Duke, and many maintain the idea that his reintroduction to the rotation during the NCAA Tournament thwarted Duke's hopes at repeating. Whether you subscribe to that theory or not, Kyrie had a severely limited time at Duke (even more so than the others on this list) due to injury. Many were appalled not to see the potential future Hall of Famer with a bye and not making it further than he did. In my eyes, it is difficult to vote for a player who only played eleven games (regardless of his impact on the program and obvious talent). His first round opponent AJ Griffin likewise has a limited portfolio in Durham because, well, he isn't done yet. It may have been unfair to include the active players, but I couldn't help it. I was curious to see how fans thought they stacked up against past players. Despite strong play as of late, Kyrie defeated AJ in the vote 62/38.
The second round featured the seven players with byes and the nine that moved on from the first. Zion easily won over Luol Deng 96/4 (sorry again for the misjustice I committed with the seeding of Luol, he never should have faced Zion this early). Deng was Duke's first National Freshman of the Year and likewise the first one and done in Durham to take home that hardware. Deng also won NROY on a Final Four team which is something only one other Blue Devil has done since (Okafor in 2015). Still, the undeniable dominance of Zion Williamson prevailed.
2015 National Champion one and done trio (the first time Duke ever had more than one freshman NBA departure in the same season) Justise Winslow, Jahlil Okafor, and Tyus Jones all moved on to the final eight. Winslow defeated Corey Maggette 77/23 and Okafor defeated Brandon Ingram 87/13 which did not come as much of a surprise. But to me there was a massive shocker in the third win by the 2015 trio. Tyus Jones beat Jabari Parker 78/22 (a blowout win at that). The margin of victory here really took me aback. Parker was the runner-up for national player of the year in 2013-2014 while averaging 19.1 PPG. Meanwhile, Jones was only a member of third team All-ACC while averaging 11.8 PPG. On paper, it is outlandish to claim that Tyus was better than Jabari.
I had never even considered that Tyus could win this matchup until a wave of Duke fans started a dialogue about how Jones should win the bracket. When I first read that, I couldn't quite wrap my head around it. I love Tyus Jones, but had always considered him the third best player on the 2015 title team. So, I was reasonably shocked when he easily forwent Jabari Parker. But, my eyes opened to the priorities of Duke fans. Delivering in the big moments is what makes a Duke player truly great. For them, Tyus is one of the all-time greats in Durham, not just among one and dones but among all players. Tyus was the Final Four MOP and he delivered time and time again in clutch moments during big games. While it is certainly true that Duke would not have won their fifth national championship without him, the same can certainly be said for Winslow, Okafor, and Quinn Cook. Duke nation made it abundantly clear that they were backing Tyus Jones in mass (and this is not the last time I will mention Tyus I assure you).
RJ Barrett knocked off Jayson Tatum in the closest match yet 58/42. Despite their NBA success, Tatum and Ingram could not make much leeway in this bracket. Paolo Banchero, despite not finishing his season at Duke yet, defeated Kyrie Irving 65/35, placing Paolo in the final eight without even finishing his lone year in Durham.
The most competitive poll in the second round, and actually second most competitive in the entire bracket was between Vernon Carey Jr. and Wendell Carter Jr. These two big men were both often overlooked due to playing alongside the ACC Player of the Year in each respective season. Carey, however bests Carter by about four PPG and was a consensus All-American. Vernon played during the season cut off by the pandemic, so we never got closure for his Duke run. He was narrowly defeated by Wendell Carter Jr. 55/45. Carter Jr. was an exceptional player on both sides of the court, named to second team All-ACC and the All-Defense team. Despite less national recognition, Carter gained the support of the Blue Devil faithful. Carter had a reputation for being underappreciated at Duke and deserves a lot of recognition for his excellent play. Nevertheless, I have to wonder how Carey would have been perceived had we seen a proper end to his tenure at Duke, because Vernon was truly dominant in the low post.
The final second round matchup saw Marvin Bagley III top Austin Rivers 78/22. I want to take a moment to appreciate Rivers as the first one and done in Duke history to irrefutably be the symbolic leader and perceived best player for an entire season at Duke. He is most often noted for hitting the miraculous game winner at UNC, but Austin averaged better than 15 PPG and even received a 3rd team All-American bid by NABC. All of that is still not great enough to defeat the brilliance of Bagley's season at Duke though.
Once the final eight was determined (Zion, Justise, Jahlil, Tyus, RJ, Paolo, Wendell, and Marvin), peoples pitches for who should win and who got robbed really ramped up. It was not a surprise that Zion Williamson won over Justise Winslow 91/9. Nor was it a shocker that RJ Barrett easily triumphed over Paolo Banchero 81/19, or that Marvin Bagley III won big over his former teammate Wendell Carter Jr. 89/11. As Zion, RJ, and Marvin cemented their places in the final four, I like a few other Duke fans (and I say a few because it obviously is not the majority) watched as Tyus Jones bested his own former teammate Jahlil Okafor 57/43. Now, before you chastise me Tyus Jones voters—hear me out. I think Tyus Jones was an exceptional player and perhaps one of the most clutch and important players in school history. The claim that he helped Duke hang their fifth national title is irrefutable. It is also true that he was the team's best player during the six game NCAA Tournament stretch. However, I never imagined that he would be able to defeat Jahlil Okafor head to head in this bracket though. The two friends played on the same team. And in that same season Jones averaged 11.8 PPG as a member of 3rd team All-ACC. Meanwhile Jahlil Okafor averaged 17.5 PPG as the ACC POY and 1st team All-American. By no stretch of the imagination did Jones outplay Okafor during the entirety of the 2014-2015 season. Okafor was the centerpiece and focal point of the offense. He consistently drew double and triple teams due to his dominance in the low post. There was not a player in college basketball more dominant than Jahlil Okafor in 2014-2015, and without him the 2014-2015 Blue Devils likely would not have made it very far at all. This matchup came as a shock, but one thing clearly emerged: performances in the big moments stand out to Duke fans and are often prioritized. Tyus Jones was the king of big moments, and it made him a presumptive favorite in this bracket for many.
With that upset the final four was set: Zion vs. Tyus and RJ vs. Marvin.
I know it seems like I have been highly critical of Tyus Jones, but I actually found myself routing for him during the unfolding of the bracket. He is one of the most likeable Blue Devils I can think of, and is one of my favorite players to ever lace them up. But, he met his match in the final four. Collegiate super star and National Player of the Year Zion Williamson (just one of three freshman to ever win NPOY; Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis are the other two) defeated Tyus 64/36. That said, Tyus put up a better fight against Zion than any other player could have. Many were disappointed because they strongly believed Tyus should have been the winner or that Zion did not deliver a title and therefore could not be the best. At the end of the day, Zion's unique style of dominance proved too great to be bested by Jones' Cinderella run through the bracket. With that result, the winner of the bracket would ultimately be a player that was one shot shy of the Final Four regardless of who won.
Marvin Bagley III vs. RJ Barrett was the closest match of the entire tournament. And it was as close as it could possibly be. In a poll receiving 607 votes, it showed a 50/50 split until the final results displayed RJ Barrett as the narrow winner (by no more than a few votes).
Bagley vs. Barrett was a matchup I was curious about when I came up with the idea to run these polls. I was really hoping it would be close, and well let's just say I got what I was hoping for. Bagley averaged 21 PPG and 11.1 RPG, winning ACC POY in dominant fashion. Barrett averaged 22.6 PPG as the NPOY runner-up. In any other season not including Zion Williamson, RJ would have been the runaway ACC POY and NPOY. His 860 points were good for the second most in a single season all-time at Duke (first is JJ Redick in 2005-06). Bagley and Barrett were both reclassifications and top three picks. The pair certainly belonged in the final four in my opinion. I was up in the air as to who I thought should advance to the championship. Ultimately, Duke fans narrowly chose RJ and set up a battle of the teammates in the championship.
There was never a more publicized Duke team during the one and done era than 2018-2019. Every time Zion, RJ, Cam, and Tre played it was must see TV. Barrett and Williamson were roommates at Duke and they were the final matchup in the one and done bracket.
But RJ didn't put up quite as good of a fight as Tyus Jones did. Zion won the championship over RJ 91/9.
Williamson's time at Duke was simply unbelievable. I never doubted that the champion of this tournament would be Zion Williamson. In the future I hope to repeat a bracket of this style to gauge Duke fan's thoughts on who the greatest Blue Devils of all-time are (I hope to create my own Top 100 Duke players of all-time eventually).
Regardless of whether you agree with the results of the bracket or with me, you have to admit that it is fun and interesting to see how Duke fans vote in these polls. I love it, and want to make more of these as time goes on.
Make sure to follow @duke_recruiting on Twitter to see these polls and vote in real time!
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